The beginning of the end? Is Facebook engagement down 34%?



Contributing Writer
Photo: Me at this winter Credit: Gonçalo Pereira

Photo: Me at this winter Credit: Gonçalo Pereira

It was widely reported last week that 34% of Facebook users are spending less time on site than they previously had.  The poll by Reuters was widely reported in both the media and blogosphere, but in all likelihood is an exaggeration of user’s online activity.

The poll itself was set-up similarly to a political poll – 1032 respondents (about .0006 percent of the total U.S. Facebook population) were polled about their perception of their Facebook usage.  The issue for me is that just as the public sentiment vacillates between Obama and Romney (currently favoring Romney because of jobs reports), I suspect that the underperformance of the Facebook IPO informs the sentiment expressed by this poll.  It also examines a subjective criteria at isn’t as clear-cut as choosing Obama or Romney.  The actual question that the pollsters are asking is:

“Of the 14 minutes you spend a day on Facebook, half or more of that on your smartphone – are you spending more, less or about the same amount of time on the site?”

Because people aren’t conscious of their time, because this is a subjective measure of their perceived usage, and because there isn’t a clear impetus for such a pronounced shift, it makes more sense that many of these respondents have a negative view of Facebook informed by recent events.  There also is a lot of nuance to online activity (disproportionate female usage, superusers, mobile users, regional usage) that add additional variables to a poll like this.

But even if usage were down should Facebook care?  Probably not.  Facebook has always had eyeballs – its problem is converting the time on site to advertising dollars.  Even with a dip in time on site (which is probably not accurate), Facebook still would have a huge audience on their site for unprecedented amount of time.  The question is whether they can create advertising both on PCs and mobile that retain the audience and convert for advertisers.

Reports of Facebook’s demise may be grossly exaggerated.  They may have 99 problems, but 98 of them are tertiary to its biggest one: how to leverage their platform into an effective advertising medium.
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Jim Dougherty

Jim Dougherty

Writer and chief of miscellany at leaderswest.com

I aspire to give people something to think about rather than tell them what to do. My favorite Google Alert is “social media research,” I am increasingly compelled by Gen Z, and I appreciate good writers agnostic of where they write. At one time I was Kred’s 12th most influential social media blogger and Klout’s most influential person on the topic of David Hasselhoff. Transplant from Seattle living in Cincinnati. Haven’t entirely adopted the local sports teams yet.

Jim Dougherty

@jimdougherty

Writer about social media and tech at Leaders West, I also tweet as @leaderswest.

Infographic: Is the value of Foursquare overstated? http://t.co/X6SwuqLLcD – 2 hours ago

Jim Dougherty

Jim Dougherty

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  • http://www.seo-first-page.com SEO First

    Oh! Cmon, 1032 respondents! That’s nothing! I think we should ignore the survey and its outcomes because that in no way is representing the FB community.

  • http://leaderswest.com Jim Dougherty

    I looked into the statistical significance of that sample and it’s consistent with political polls of the entire country, so the sample size is probably okay. I think that the complexity of the question as it is posed primes people for an uninformed response, and that there are fewer triggers (such as jobs reports and political advertising) to make that number reliable. Big pictue: there isn’t a sufficient event to warrant such a sizable shift in behavior. Thanks for reading and commenting!

  • http://about.me/juliaserafina Julia Serfina

    Hi Jim, I am always dubious of the accuracy of polls, especially when the question being asked is, as you have mentioned, rather complex, if not, in my opinion, a little confusing. The way a question is phrased is important when conducting market research. The type of question asked was (if my memory serves me correctly) a fixed-alternative question (i.e. a closed question); which limits a respondent to a set number of possible responses e.g. “more”, “less” or “about the same time”. Generally these sort of questions are used because they are easier for the respondent to answer, and easier for the researcher in processing the data collection. I think the question could have been worded differently, but hey, I am not the researcher conducting the poll. :) As for me and WHY I have not been on Facebook as much lately? It is because I have been too busy. I don’t use my Smartphone to post on FB nearly as much as on my computer; and the time I do spend on Facebook, as a general whole, would well and truly exceed 14 minutes. I agree, FB faces a bigger problem than a possible short-term drop in usage. It will be interesting to see what that outcome is. :)

  • http://turkishtravelblog.com/ Natalie

    I was surprised to read this as the number of FB clicks through to my site has gone up in recent weeks, also without me having to use the promote post function!

  • http://www.luftigwarren.com/blog Brad Ellison

    I love the “99 problems” call. Good work.

    The fall of Facebook has got to be inevitable, right? No matter how popular it is or was, it seems like every social platform, at some point, will simply fail. It may be hard to imagine right now, but there is eventually going to be something better…something that captures the imagination of the internet world and starts to chip away at Facebook’s stronghold. What Facebook has done is incredible, but is it sustainable forever? Ehhhh…

  • http://noispot.com atleta

    What a lame post… C’mon. The headline says FB usage down by 34%, which is by itself unrealistic. The net and news would be full if there was, say a 5% reduction. 34% can’t happen overnight. Anyway, so the title says that, and then, of course, it turns out that even the sloppy research had a wastly different conclusion: that 34% of the users used it less. Now if it’s 34% of the users, then they would have to go to 0 to justify the claim in the title. If they were average users…

    And even then, it disregards a few very important facts: the userbase is growing, the sample wasn’t by any means representative (US based users only? Such a small sample? C’mon…) So it’s 100% bullshit. The only question here is why do you post a bullshit story with an even more lame title if you know that it’s bullshit (as you explain in the end).

  • http://leaderswest.com Jim Dougherty

    Sounds like we agree about the content but you disagree about the title. Except that as discussed earlier in the comments that sample size is of a scale similar to other polls. I’d point out that you’re a tad rude but assume that you understand that – you would probably represent your business and viewpoint better by toning it down a bit – but I think your point about the title being misleading is appropriate. Thanks for reading.

  • http://leaderswest.com Jim Dougherty

    Thanks Brad! ComScore just realeased a study today that contradicts the Reuter assertions, so I may be right… or they may be… who knows? Thanks for reading and commenting!

  • http://funonadimewa.wordpress.com Lynette

    Jim- I think the poll and your article raise a few interesting questions. If people are truly unaware of the time they devote to FB, then it can’t be hurting that much. Afterall, time flies when you’re having fun, or not paying attention. Their ability to have people sign into outside web pages using their FB login, so they can post their likes or activity to their page is simply genius. I don’t think they need to do that much advertising. Advertising has been the largest model for earning money on an online site. But let’s face it, they have something much more valuable than ad space to rent, the have millions of people’s web browsing history and likes, all posted in a public forum, so the idea of expected privacy is squishy. That is where the BIG money is. They might make some users mad, but people havent stopped using Chrome yet.

  • Denis O

    I understand what Brad is trying to point out about the failures of social platforms. I probably wouldn’t call it failure, as much as it would more a case of them outliving their usefulness and popularity. MySpace is a case in point. It’s still there, but nothing like it was when it started.
    From a purely anecdotal point of view, I am not FB, but my two daughters are. My oldest, now 28, has stated bluntly that she does not go on FB often any more. Once a week, if that, and she has set her security to almost the most restrictive. She realizes she has too much to worry about in real life instead of spending, no, wasting, time on FB, which isn’t going to change anything going on in her life. I tend to think that a majority, albeit a small one, tend to think like her.

  • http://theemailwriter.com/ Courtney James

    The problem with polls is that they’re rarely useful and only reflect the power users. Or so I’ve found having conducted way too many for clients. Having said that, I wish Facebook usage was down 34%.

    If more people understood that Facebook’s only major potential source of revenue is to sell their own personal and private data then they wouldn’t use it at all. The problem is, that even the people I know who are concerned with how little Facebook protects their privacy still feel compelled to use their services to keep in touch with friends. If more people delete their profiles then others who are on the fence won’t feel compelled to keep theirs.

    I deleted my Facebook account over a year ago and never felt better about dumping a company. It would be enlightening for many users to read Zuckerberg’s old emails about his users when Facebook was started.

    He had some shocking things to say about the people who trust him.

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  • http://www.digdeepthinker.com @MarketingVeep

    You’re a class act when it comes to responding, Jim. Well done at sticking to the high road.

  • http://ronrule.com Ron Rule

    The fact that school is out probably has something to do with it.

  • http://leaderswest.com Jim Dougherty

    Thanks for your commitment to read not only the article but comments Kelli (and for your kind words!)

  • Todd Kindred

    I have about 500 or more “friends” on Facebook. I have noticed that posts and updates have dramatically declined. I myself only log into FB to check to see if I have received a message from someone who is still “holding on” to sending messages via FB. I used to like FB quite a bit and would log in often. Not any more. It was interesting at first because you could reengage with old friends. Now I think many find it boring. Fabebook IS going down.

  • http://leaderswest.com Jim Dougherty

    Phenomenal insight Todd and a conversation that my wife and I have had a lot (she’s noticed a precipitous decline from her friends as well). It will be interesting to see how things play out. Thanks for reading and for taking the time to comment. Cheers!

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