Social media will not sway the Presidential election



Contributing Writer
Photo:US Capitol Credit: Lize Rixt


“Three debates scheduled for October 3rd, 16th and 22nd will decide this year’s presidential election with social media at the helm.”

- “Experts Predict Social Media to play key role in U.S. 2012 elections” Sep 26, 2012

Articles espousing social media’s great influence over the Presidential election are ramping up in the final weeks of the U.S. Presidential campaigns.  What is especially interesting about these assertions are that they ignore the mechanisms of amalgamated “social media” and assign these channels magical powers that they don’t possess.

Social media is a quite effective means to distribute information, but the quality of the information is more important than the actual channels for proliferation.  The argument that social media will sway the Presidential election is imprecise.  It also makes an assumption that may be likewise incorrect.  Let me explain:

“Social media” is code for Twitter

One of the first red flags that should generate some doubt in people’s minds is how the “experts” making assertions about the power of ambiguous “social media” channels are describing Twitter.   The fact that Facebook oftentimes requires an additional click to deliver context from its news feed disadvantages it as a real-time news source.

The fact that people attribute Twitter’s qualities to a class of applications ranging from Instagram to LinkedIn seems to undermine their expertise in the subject.  If (as I propose) Facebook is a less powerful means for real-time data than Twitter, the number of undecided voters that can be reached diminishes quite substantially.

Twitter will sway elections like local news sways elections.

The fundamental assumption that the “social media will change the election” argument has is that there will be notable content to discuss.  Sure, people on either side of the political spectrum will spin banalities – but odds are nothing is going to happen.

If you recall the 2008 election, Obama was unflinching even when his opposing candidate John McCain increased more bizarre tactics such as pacing the stage during Obama’s comments.  Four years later, Obama is further seasoned and is unlikely to be provoked into a dreaded gaffe.  Romney likewise is unlikely to say or do anything more provocative than his 47% comment.  Odds are, nothing substantive will happen.

This problem elucidates the issue with trying to attribute great power to social media.  It is a channel no different than a local TV channel.  If a debate happens they will report it so people are aware.  If something shocking happens they will report it.  The likelihood that the interpretation of any event will differ substantially between social media and local news is low.  Even if social media perpetuates news faster than local TV or newspapers, if the content is qualitatively equal does it matter that a person learns about it on social versus traditional media?  Probably not.

Political overkill

The last assumption that may be important is whether anyone is listening to political posts at this point.  If I were an undecided voter I would have long since stopped reading political posts (even as a decided voter I have).

So, in order for social media to sway the election all of the following conditions must be met:

  • Facebook has to be the primary means of influence
  • Something really impactful has to happen in the debates
  • Interpretation of that event has to be different in social media than on other channels
  • Undecided voters must still be listening

Does anyone think all of those things will happen?

 

Jim Dougherty

Jim Dougherty

Writer and chief of miscellany at leaderswest.com

I aspire to give people something to think about rather than tell them what to do. My favorite Google Alert is “social media research,” I am increasingly compelled by Gen Z, and I appreciate good writers agnostic of where they write. At one time I was Kred’s 12th most influential social media blogger and Klout’s most influential person on the topic of David Hasselhoff. Transplant from Seattle living in Cincinnati. Haven’t entirely adopted the local sports teams yet.

Jim Dougherty

@jimdougherty

Writer about social media and tech at Leaders West, I also tweet as @leaderswest.

Infographic: Is the value of Foursquare overstated? http://t.co/X6SwuqLLcD – 15 hours ago

Jim Dougherty

Jim Dougherty

  • http://alphaefficiency.com Bojan Djordjevic

    Here are my thoughts on the upcoming election and the impact of Social Media on them. Impact of social media is there, but it’s insignificant in comparison to what Television does:

    http://bojandjordjevic.com/presidential-election-2012-in-social-media/

  • jimdougherty

    Thanks Bojan for reading and commenting. If the points you make in your piece are accurate (and they are contrary to most polling amd narrative right now), then a Romney victory in November would effectively disprove my points. I’m quite interested to see if that’s the case. A provocative argument you make – thank you.

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